Villajoyosa 0–1 Roda: Result & Stats

Villajoyosa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Roda

4/10/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villajoyosa25%

×Draw29%

Roda46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillajoyosaExpected goals in this matchRoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.25

Villajoyosa

0.85

Roda

1.25

Roda creates 47% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 111 away

0.75

creates per match

0.94

1.56

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Villajoyosa

0.75

Roda

0.94

allows per match

Villajoyosa

1.56

Roda

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Roda →

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw

54%

Villajoyosa or Roda

71%

Draw or Roda

75%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+

Roda wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals

57%

Villajoyosa 2+ goals

21%

Villajoyosa 3+ goals

Roda 1+ goals

71%

Roda 2+ goals

36%

Roda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)

36%

Roda (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Roda attack 0.94 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villajoyosa scores more

25%

level

29%

Roda scores more

46%

Roda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff