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Villajoyosa vs Intercity — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Intercity
Intercity
2/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Estadio Nou Pla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Villajoyosa18%
×Draw26%
Intercity55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villajoyosa
0.74
Intercity
1.50

Intercity creates 103% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Villajoyosa
0.75
Intercity
1.44

allows per match

Villajoyosa
1.56
Intercity
0.74

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par
Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Intercity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw
45%
Villajoyosa or Intercity
74%
Draw or Intercity
82%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+
5%
Intercity wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals
52%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
17%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
4%
Intercity 1+ goals
78%
Intercity 2+ goals
44%
Intercity 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
25%
Intercity (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Intercity away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Intercity defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Intercity attack 1.44 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villajoyosa scores more
18%
level
26%
Intercity scores more
55%

Intercity at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villajoyosa 0–4 Intercity

Intercity beat Villajoyosa 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Pla in Villajoyosa / La Vila Joiosa.