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Villajoyosa vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hércules II
Hércules II
9/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Estadio Nou Pla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villajoyosa30%
×Draw29%
Hércules II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villajoyosa
0.98
Hércules II
1.19

Hércules II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

creates per match

Villajoyosa
0.75
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Villajoyosa
1.56
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw
59%
Villajoyosa or Hércules II
71%
Draw or Hércules II
70%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+
11%
Hércules II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals
62%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
26%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
8%
Hércules II 1+ goals
70%
Hércules II 2+ goals
33%
Hércules II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
43%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villajoyosa scores more
30%
level
29%
Hércules II scores more
41%

Hércules II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villajoyosa 0–1 Hércules II

Hércules II beat Villajoyosa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Pla in Villajoyosa / La Vila Joiosa.