Villajoyosa 2–0 Elche II: Result & Stats

Villajoyosa

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Elche II

11/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villajoyosa23%

×Draw27%

Elche II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillajoyosaExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.41

Villajoyosa

0.88

Elche II

1.41

Elche II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 77 away

0.75

creates per match

1.25

1.56

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Villajoyosa

0.75

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Villajoyosa

1.56

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Elche II →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw

51%

Villajoyosa or Elche II

73%

Draw or Elche II

77%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+

Elche II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals

59%

Villajoyosa 2+ goals

22%

Villajoyosa 3+ goals

Elche II 1+ goals

76%

Elche II 2+ goals

41%

Elche II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)

32%

Elche II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Elche II attack 1.25 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villajoyosa scores more

23%

level

27%

Elche II scores more

49%

Elche II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff