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Villafranca vs Torviscosa — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Torviscosa
Torviscosa
F. Marchetti 55', 30'
E. Leveh 25'
12/11/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villafranca30%
×Draw29%
Torviscosa41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.01
Torviscosa
1.23

Torviscosa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Torviscosa
1.18

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Torviscosa
1.12

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Torviscosa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Torviscosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
59%
Villafranca or Torviscosa
71%
Draw or Torviscosa
70%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
11%
Torviscosa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
64%
Villafranca 2+ goals
27%
Villafranca 3+ goals
8%
Torviscosa 1+ goals
71%
Torviscosa 2+ goals
35%
Torviscosa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
42%
Torviscosa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Torviscosa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Torviscosa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Torviscosa attack 1.18 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villafranca scores more
30%
level
29%
Torviscosa scores more
41%

Torviscosa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torviscosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
E. Leveh
30'
F. Marchetti
55'
F. Marchetti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villafranca vs Torviscosa

Villafranca beat Torviscosa 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 11, 2022.

Goals: E. Leveh (25'), F. Marchetti (30', 55').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Villafranca di Verona.