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Villafranca vs San Luigi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
0 – 0
San Luigi
San Luigi
10/30/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 11Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villafranca39%
×Draw27%
San Luigi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.29
San Luigi
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
San Luigi
1.10

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
San Luigi
1.68

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
San Luigi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

San Luigi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
66%
Villafranca or San Luigi
73%
Draw or San Luigi
61%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
17%
San Luigi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
72%
Villafranca 2+ goals
37%
Villafranca 3+ goals
14%
San Luigi 1+ goals
70%
San Luigi 2+ goals
34%
San Luigi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
53%
San Luigi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

San Luigi away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + San Luigi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Luigi attack 1.10 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villafranca scores more
39%
level
27%
San Luigi scores more
34%

Villafranca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villafranca 0–0 San Luigi

Villafranca and San Luigi drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona).