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Villafranca vs Montebelluna — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montebelluna
Montebelluna
F. Martone 90+2'
F. Marchetti 55'
3/19/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villafranca35%
×Draw27%
Montebelluna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.19
Montebelluna
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Montebelluna
1.19

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Montebelluna
1.47

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Montebelluna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
63%
Villafranca or Montebelluna
73%
Draw or Montebelluna
65%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
15%
Montebelluna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
70%
Villafranca 2+ goals
33%
Villafranca 3+ goals
12%
Montebelluna 1+ goals
71%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
35%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
48%
Montebelluna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villafranca scores more
35%
level
27%
Montebelluna scores more
37%

Montebelluna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
F. Marchetti
90+2'
F. Martone

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villafranca 2–0 Montebelluna

Villafranca beat Montebelluna 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 19, 2023.

Goals: F. Marchetti (55'), F. Martone (90+2').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Villafranca di Verona.