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Villafranca vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
1 – 2
Mestre
Mestre
9/22/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 5Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villafranca33%
×Draw30%
Mestre37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.04
Mestre
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
63%
Villafranca or Mestre
70%
Draw or Mestre
67%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
13%
Mestre wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
65%
Villafranca 2+ goals
28%
Villafranca 3+ goals
9%
Mestre 1+ goals
67%
Mestre 2+ goals
30%
Mestre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
47%
Mestre (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mestre attack 0.94 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villafranca scores more
33%
level
30%
Mestre scores more
37%

Mestre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villafranca 1–2 Mestre

Mestre beat Villafranca 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona).