Villafranca 2–1 Jaraíz: Result & Stats

Villafranca

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jaraíz

3/15/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 26Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villafranca44%

×Draw26%

Jaraíz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillafrancaExpected goals in this matchJaraíz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Villafranca

1.47

Jaraíz

1.19

Villafranca creates 24% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 52 away

1.42

creates per match

1.40

0.98

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Villafranca

1.42

Jaraíz

1.40

allows per match

Villafranca

0.98

Jaraíz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par

Jaraíz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Jaraíz →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw

69%

Villafranca or Jaraíz

74%

Draw or Jaraíz

56%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+

21%

Jaraíz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals

77%

Villafranca 2+ goals

43%

Villafranca 3+ goals

18%

Jaraíz 1+ goals

70%

Jaraíz 2+ goals

33%

Jaraíz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)

59%

Jaraíz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.98 · 81 matches

Jaraíz away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 1.42 + Jaraíz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jaraíz attack 1.40 + Villafranca defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villafranca scores more

44%

level

26%

Jaraíz scores more

31%

Villafranca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff