Villafranca 1–1 Delta Porto Tolle: Result & Stats

Villafranca

FT

1 – 1

Delta Porto Tolle

10/20/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 9Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Villafranca34%

×Draw28%

Delta Porto Tolle38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillafrancaExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.21

Villafranca

1.14

Delta Porto Tolle

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

0.90

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Villafranca

0.90

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

Villafranca

1.29

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw

62%

Villafranca or Delta Porto Tolle

72%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

66%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+

14%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals

68%

Villafranca 2+ goals

32%

Villafranca 3+ goals

11%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

70%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

34%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)

48%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villafranca scores more

34%

level

28%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

38%

Delta Porto Tolle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff