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Villafranca vs Belluno — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
0 – 1
Belluno
Belluno
12/8/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 17Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Villafranca36%
×Draw27%
Belluno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.27
Belluno
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

creates per match

Villafranca
0.90
Belluno
1.29

allows per match

Villafranca
1.29
Belluno
1.64

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Belluno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Belluno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
63%
Villafranca or Belluno
73%
Draw or Belluno
64%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
16%
Belluno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
72%
Villafranca 2+ goals
36%
Villafranca 3+ goals
14%
Belluno 1+ goals
72%
Belluno 2+ goals
37%
Belluno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
49%
Belluno (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Belluno away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 0.90 + Belluno defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Belluno attack 1.29 + Villafranca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villafranca scores more
36%
level
27%
Belluno scores more
37%

Belluno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villafranca vs Belluno

Belluno beat Villafranca 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale (Villafranca di Verona).