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Villafranca vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Villafranca57%
×Draw23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.76
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.92

Villafranca creates 91% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

creates per match

Villafranca
1.42
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Villafranca
0.98
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
80%
Villafranca or Atlético Pueblonuevo
77%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
43%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
32%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
83%
Villafranca 2+ goals
52%
Villafranca 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.98 · 81 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 1.42 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Villafranca defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villafranca scores more
57%
level
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
20%

Villafranca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Villafranca 3–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Villafranca beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros in Villafranca de los Barros.