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Villacañas vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Talavera II
Talavera II
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Villacañas63%
×Draw22%
Talavera II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.85
Talavera II
0.78

Villacañas creates 137% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Talavera II
0.73

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Talavera II
2.47

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Talavera II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
85%
Villacañas or Talavera II
78%
Draw or Talavera II
37%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
37%
Talavera II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
84%
Villacañas 2+ goals
55%
Villacañas 3+ goals
28%
Talavera II 1+ goals
54%
Talavera II 2+ goals
18%
Talavera II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
80%
Talavera II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Villacañas scores more
63%
level
22%
Talavera II scores more
15%

Villacañas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villacañas 5–4 Talavera II

Villacañas beat Talavera II 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.