Villacañas 1–0 Quintanar del Rey: Result & Stats

Villacañas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Quintanar del Rey

2/22/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 23Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Villacañas36%

×Draw30%

Quintanar del Rey34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillacañasExpected goals in this matchQuintanar del Rey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.03

Villacañas

1.08

Quintanar del Rey

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

1.24

creates per match

1.23

0.84

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Villacañas

1.24

Quintanar del Rey

1.23

allows per match

Villacañas

0.84

Quintanar del Rey

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Quintanar del Rey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw

66%

Villacañas or Quintanar del Rey

70%

Draw or Quintanar del Rey

64%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+

14%

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals

66%

Villacañas 2+ goals

29%

Villacañas 3+ goals

10%

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

64%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

28%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)

52%

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villacañas scores more

36%

level

30%

Quintanar del Rey scores more

34%

Villacañas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff