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Villacañas vs Manchego — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manchego
Manchego
2/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Villacañas40%
×Draw30%
Manchego30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.13
Manchego
0.95

Villacañas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Manchego
1.05

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Manchego
1.01

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Manchego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
70%
Villacañas or Manchego
70%
Draw or Manchego
60%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
16%
Manchego wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
68%
Villacañas 2+ goals
31%
Villacañas 3+ goals
11%
Manchego 1+ goals
61%
Manchego 2+ goals
25%
Manchego 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
57%
Manchego (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Manchego attack 1.05 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villacañas scores more
40%
level
30%
Manchego scores more
30%

Villacañas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villacañas 1–0 Manchego

Villacañas beat Manchego 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.