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Villacañas vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
CANC
00:00
Madridejos
Madridejos
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Villacañas55%
×Draw26%
Madridejos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.52
Madridejos
0.76

Villacañas creates 100% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
81%
Villacañas or Madridejos
74%
Draw or Madridejos
45%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
29%
Madridejos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
78%
Villacañas 2+ goals
45%
Villacañas 3+ goals
20%
Madridejos 1+ goals
53%
Madridejos 2+ goals
18%
Madridejos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
75%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villacañas scores more
55%
level
26%
Madridejos scores more
19%

Villacañas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villacañas face Madridejos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 returns with Villacañas hosting Madridejos. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Villacañas host Madridejos at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.