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Villacañas vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 31Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Villacañas41%
×Draw30%
Calvo Sotelo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.17
Calvo Sotelo
0.93

Villacañas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
71%
Villacañas or Calvo Sotelo
70%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
59%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
18%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
69%
Villacañas 2+ goals
33%
Villacañas 3+ goals
11%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
61%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
24%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
59%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villacañas scores more
41%
level
30%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
29%

Villacañas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villacañas 0–1 Calvo Sotelo

Calvo Sotelo beat Villacañas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.