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Villacañas vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
10/5/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 8Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Villacañas42%
×Draw29%
Atlético Ibañés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.21
Atlético Ibañés
0.96

Villacañas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
71%
Villacañas or Atlético Ibañés
71%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
58%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
70%
Villacañas 2+ goals
34%
Villacañas 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villacañas scores more
42%
level
29%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
29%

Villacañas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villacañas vs Atlético Ibañés

Villacañas and Atlético Ibañés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.