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Villa Valle vs Lavis — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villa Valle
Villa Valle
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lavis
Lavis
C. Ferrario 57'
G. Siani 34'
R. Beretta 11'
P. Ruggiero 80'
1/19/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle70%
×Draw17%
Lavis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Valle
2.40
Lavis
0.92

Villa Valle creates 161% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villa Valle
1.95
Lavis
0.63

allows per match

Villa Valle
1.21
Lavis
2.84

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par
Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Lavis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw
87%
Villa Valle or Lavis
83%
Draw or Lavis
30%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+
47%
Lavis wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals
91%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
69%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
42%
Lavis 1+ goals
60%
Lavis 2+ goals
23%
Lavis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)
85%
Lavis (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.40

Lavis attack 0.63 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Villa Valle scores more
70%
level
17%
Lavis scores more
13%

Villa Valle at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
R. Beretta
34'
G. Siani
57'
C. Ferrario
80'
P. Ruggiero
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villa Valle 3–1 Lavis

Villa Valle beat Lavis 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 19, 2025.

Goals: R. Beretta (11'), G. Siani (34'), C. Ferrario (57'), P. Ruggiero (80').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè in Villa D'Almè.