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Villa Valle vs Brusaporto — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villa Valle
Villa Valle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brusaporto
Brusaporto
4/6/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle44%
×Draw27%
Brusaporto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Valle
1.37
Brusaporto
1.05

Villa Valle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villa Valle
1.95
Brusaporto
0.89

allows per match

Villa Valle
1.21
Brusaporto
0.79

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par
Brusaporto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Brusaporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw
71%
Villa Valle or Brusaporto
73%
Draw or Brusaporto
56%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+
21%
Brusaporto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals
75%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
40%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
16%
Brusaporto 1+ goals
65%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
28%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)
61%
Brusaporto (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Brusaporto away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Brusaporto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.37

Brusaporto attack 0.89 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villa Valle scores more
44%
level
27%
Brusaporto scores more
29%

Villa Valle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Valle vs Brusaporto

Villa Valle beat Brusaporto 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè in Villa D'Almè.