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Villa Valle vs Brian Lignano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Villa Valle
Villa Valle
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Brian Lignano
Brian Lignano
F. Micheli 90+2'
G. Ciriello 60', 31'
Unknown 37' (OG)
M. Alessio 17'
3/23/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle43%
×Draw24%
Brian Lignano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Valle
1.64
Brian Lignano
1.40

Villa Valle creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Villa Valle
1.95
Brian Lignano
1.58

allows per match

Villa Valle
1.21
Brian Lignano
1.33

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par
Brian Lignano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Brian Lignano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw
67%
Villa Valle or Brian Lignano
76%
Draw or Brian Lignano
57%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+
22%
Brian Lignano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals
81%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
49%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
23%
Brian Lignano 1+ goals
75%
Brian Lignano 2+ goals
41%
Brian Lignano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)
57%
Brian Lignano (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Brian Lignano away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Brian Lignano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brian Lignano attack 1.58 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villa Valle scores more
43%
level
24%
Brian Lignano scores more
33%

Villa Valle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Alessio
31'
G. Ciriello
37'
Own goal
60'
G. Ciriello
90+2'
F. Micheli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Villa Valle 1–4 Brian Lignano

Brian Lignano beat Villa Valle 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Alessio (17'), G. Ciriello (31', 60'), ? (37' o.g.), F. Micheli (90+2').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè in Villa D'Almè.