Villa Valle 3–1 Adriese: Result & Stats

Villa Valle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adriese

12/15/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Campo Sportivo Comunale Villa D'Almè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villa Valle46%

×Draw24%

Adriese30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa ValleExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.29

Villa Valle

1.66

Adriese

1.29

Villa Valle creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

1.95

creates per match

1.36

1.21

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Villa Valle

1.95

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

Villa Valle

1.21

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Valle+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Valle ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Villa Valle or draw

70%

Villa Valle or Adriese

76%

Draw or Adriese

54%

Winning margin

Villa Valle wins by 2+

24%

Adriese wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Villa Valle 1+ goals

81%

Villa Valle 2+ goals

49%

Villa Valle 3+ goals

23%

Adriese 1+ goals

72%

Adriese 2+ goals

37%

Adriese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Villa Valle (draw refunded)

61%

Adriese (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Valle at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Valle attack 1.95 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Adriese attack 1.36 + Villa Valle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villa Valle scores more

46%

level

24%

Adriese scores more

30%

Villa Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villa Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff