Villa Santa Brígida 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza

Villa Santa Brígida

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Sur Yaiza

9/9/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida49%

×Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchUnión Sur Yaiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.86

Villa Santa Brígida

1.37

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.86

Villa Santa Brígida creates 59% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 65 away

1.42

creates per match

0.88

0.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.88

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

76%

Villa Santa Brígida or Unión Sur Yaiza

72%

Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza

51%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

23%

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

75%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

40%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

16%

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

58%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

21%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

67%

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

49%

level

28%

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

24%

Villa Santa Brígida at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Villa Santa Brígida 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.

Villa Santa Brígida vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs Unión Sur Yaiza