Villa Santa Brígida 0–2 UD San Fernando

Villa Santa Brígida

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UD San Fernando

4/1/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida39%

×Draw29%

UD San Fernando32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchUD San Fernando

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.05

Villa Santa Brígida

1.19

UD San Fernando

1.05

Villa Santa Brígida creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

1.42

creates per match

1.26

0.84

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

UD San Fernando

1.26

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

UD San Fernando

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

UD San Fernando →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

68%

Villa Santa Brígida or UD San Fernando

71%

Draw or UD San Fernando

61%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

17%

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

70%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

33%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

12%

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

65%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

28%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

55%

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

39%

level

29%

UD San Fernando scores more

32%

Villa Santa Brígida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 0–2 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Villa Santa Brígida 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.

Villa Santa Brígida vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 0–2 UD San Fernando