Villa Santa Brígida 2–0 Santa Úrsula

Villa Santa Brígida

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Úrsula

4/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida51%

×Draw27%

Santa Úrsula22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.87

Villa Santa Brígida

1.47

Santa Úrsula

0.87

Villa Santa Brígida creates 69% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

0.84

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

78%

Villa Santa Brígida or Santa Úrsula

73%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

49%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

26%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

77%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

43%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

18%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

58%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

22%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

70%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

51%

level

27%

Santa Úrsula scores more

22%

Villa Santa Brígida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 2–0 Santa Úrsula

Villa Santa Brígida beat Santa Úrsula 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.

Villa Santa Brígida vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 2–0 Santa Úrsula