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Villa Santa Brígida vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida61%
×Draw24%
Los Llanos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.62
Los Llanos
0.63

Villa Santa Brígida creates 157% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
86%
Villa Santa Brígida or Los Llanos
76%
Draw or Los Llanos
39%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
34%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
80%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
48%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
22%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
47%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
13%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
81%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
61%
level
24%
Los Llanos scores more
14%

Villa Santa Brígida at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 3–0 Los Llanos

Villa Santa Brígida beat Los Llanos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.