Villa Santa Brígida 1–2 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Villa Santa Brígida

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lanzarote

3/16/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida44%

×Draw27%

Lanzarote28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Villa Santa Brígida

1.35

Lanzarote

1.02

Villa Santa Brígida creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

0.84

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Lanzarote →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

72%

Villa Santa Brígida or Lanzarote

73%

Draw or Lanzarote

56%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

21%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

74%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

39%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

15%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

64%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

27%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

61%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

44%

level

27%

Lanzarote scores more

28%

Villa Santa Brígida at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff