Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villa Santa Brígida vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
10/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida53%
×Draw25%
La Cuadra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.61
La Cuadra
0.93

Villa Santa Brígida creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 75 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
78%
Villa Santa Brígida or La Cuadra
75%
Draw or La Cuadra
47%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
28%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
80%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
48%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
22%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
61%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
24%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
71%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
53%
level
25%
La Cuadra scores more
22%

Villa Santa Brígida at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Santa Brígida vs La Cuadra

Villa Santa Brígida beat La Cuadra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.