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Villa Santa Brígida vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
CANC
22:00
Güímar
Güímar
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 37Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida63%
×Draw22%
Güímar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.85
Güímar
0.76

Villa Santa Brígida creates 143% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Güímar
0.68

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Güímar
2.29

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Güímar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
85%
Villa Santa Brígida or Güímar
78%
Draw or Güímar
37%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
37%
Güímar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
84%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
55%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
28%
Güímar 1+ goals
53%
Güímar 2+ goals
18%
Güímar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
81%
Güímar (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

Güímar attack 0.68 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
63%
level
22%
Güímar scores more
15%

Villa Santa Brígida at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Santa Brígida vs Güímar — Match Preview

Villa Santa Brígida face Güímar on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Villa Santa Brígida host Güímar at Campo Los Olivos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.