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Villa Santa Brígida vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Estrella
Estrella
10/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida66%
×Draw21%
Estrella13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Santa Brígida
1.90
Estrella
0.70

Villa Santa Brígida creates 171% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida
1.42
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida
0.84
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw
87%
Villa Santa Brígida or Estrella
79%
Draw or Estrella
34%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
40%
Estrella wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
85%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
56%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
29%
Estrella 1+ goals
50%
Estrella 2+ goals
16%
Estrella 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
83%
Estrella (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Estrella attack 0.56 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more
66%
level
21%
Estrella scores more
13%

Villa Santa Brígida at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Villa Santa Brígida 2–1 Estrella

Villa Santa Brígida beat Estrella 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Olivos in Santa Brígida.