Villa San Carlos 1–2 Colegiales: Result & Stats

Villa San Carlos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Colegiales

5/13/2023

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 14Estadio Genancio Sálice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Villa San Carlos39%

×Draw28%

Colegiales33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa San CarlosExpected goals in this matchColegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.11

Villa San Carlos

1.23

Colegiales

1.11

Villa San Carlos creates 11% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 108 away

1.31

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Villa San Carlos

1.31

Colegiales

1.19

allows per match

Villa San Carlos

1.04

Colegiales

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa San Carlos ↓

Colegiales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villa San Carlos or draw

67%

Villa San Carlos or Colegiales

72%

Draw or Colegiales

61%

Winning margin

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+

17%

Colegiales wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals

71%

Villa San Carlos 2+ goals

35%

Villa San Carlos 3+ goals

13%

Colegiales 1+ goals

67%

Colegiales 2+ goals

30%

Colegiales 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)

54%

Colegiales (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Colegiales away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa San Carlos attack 1.31 + Colegiales defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Colegiales attack 1.19 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villa San Carlos scores more

39%

level

28%

Colegiales scores more

33%

Villa San Carlos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff