Villa San Carlos 2–4 Acassuso: Result & Stats

Villa San Carlos

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Acassuso

8/16/2025

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 9Genacio Salice Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Villa San Carlos40%

×Draw29%

Acassuso31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa San CarlosExpected goals in this matchAcassuso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.99

Villa San Carlos

1.17

Acassuso

0.99

Villa San Carlos creates 18% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 131 away

1.31

creates per match

0.95

1.04

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Villa San Carlos

1.31

Acassuso

0.95

allows per match

Villa San Carlos

1.04

Acassuso

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Acassuso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa San Carlos ↓

Acassuso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Villa San Carlos or draw

69%

Villa San Carlos or Acassuso

71%

Draw or Acassuso

60%

Winning margin

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+

17%

Acassuso wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals

69%

Villa San Carlos 2+ goals

33%

Villa San Carlos 3+ goals

11%

Acassuso 1+ goals

63%

Acassuso 2+ goals

26%

Acassuso 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)

56%

Acassuso (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

Acassuso away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa San Carlos attack 1.31 + Acassuso defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Acassuso attack 0.95 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villa San Carlos scores more

40%

level

29%

Acassuso scores more

31%

Villa San Carlos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff