Villa Real U20 0–0 Uberaba U20: Result & Stats

Villa Real U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uberaba U20

5/18/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Villa Real U2043%

×Draw27%

Uberaba U2031%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Real U20Expected goals in this matchUberaba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Villa Real U20

1.39

Uberaba U20

1.13

Villa Real U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

0.89

1.36

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Villa Real U20

1.00

Uberaba U20

0.89

allows per match

Villa Real U20

1.36

Uberaba U20

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Real U20+0.00on par

Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Real U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villa Real U20 or draw

69%

Villa Real U20 or Uberaba U20

73%

Draw or Uberaba U20

57%

Winning margin

Villa Real U20 wins by 2+

20%

Uberaba U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Villa Real U20 1+ goals

75%

Villa Real U20 2+ goals

40%

Villa Real U20 3+ goals

16%

Uberaba U20 1+ goals

68%

Uberaba U20 2+ goals

31%

Uberaba U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villa Real U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Real U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Real U20 attack 1.00 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + Villa Real U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villa Real U20 scores more

43%

level

27%

Uberaba U20 scores more

31%

Villa Real U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villa Real U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'

R. Lima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff