Villa Real U20 4–0 Mamoré U20: Result & Stats

Villa Real U20

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mamoré U20

6/1/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Villa Real U2081%

×Draw13%

Mamoré U207%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Real U20Expected goals in this matchMamoré U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.68

Villa Real U20

2.80

Mamoré U20

0.68

Villa Real U20 creates 312% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

1.36

allows per match

4.60

creates per match

Villa Real U20

1.00

Mamoré U20

0.00

allows per match

Villa Real U20

1.36

Mamoré U20

4.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Real U20+0.00on par

Mamoré U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Real U20 ↓

Mamoré U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Villa Real U20 or draw

93%

Villa Real U20 or Mamoré U20

87%

Draw or Mamoré U20

19%

Winning margin

Villa Real U20 wins by 2+

60%

Mamoré U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Villa Real U20 1+ goals

94%

Villa Real U20 2+ goals

76%

Villa Real U20 3+ goals

52%

Mamoré U20 1+ goals

49%

Mamoré U20 2+ goals

15%

Mamoré U20 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Villa Real U20 (draw refunded)

92%

Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Real U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Mamoré U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Real U20 attack 1.00 + Mamoré U20 defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 2.80

Mamoré U20 attack 0.00 + Villa Real U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Villa Real U20 scores more

81%

level

13%

Mamoré U20 scores more

7%

Villa Real U20 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Villa Real U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff