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Villa Nova vs CAP — Mineiro - 1 2020

Villa Nova
Villa Nova
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CAP
CAP
3/13/2022Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 10Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Villa Nova41%
×Draw26%
CAP33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Nova
1.46
CAP
1.28

Villa Nova creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Villa Nova
1.16
CAP
0.68

allows per match

Villa Nova
1.88
CAP
1.75

finishing

Villa Nova+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Nova ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villa Nova or draw
67%
Villa Nova or CAP
74%
Draw or CAP
59%

Winning margin

Villa Nova wins by 2+
20%
CAP wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villa Nova 1+ goals
77%
Villa Nova 2+ goals
43%
Villa Nova 3+ goals
18%
CAP 1+ goals
72%
CAP 2+ goals
37%
CAP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villa Nova (draw refunded)
56%
CAP (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Nova at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

CAP away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Nova attack 1.16 + CAP defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

CAP attack 0.68 + Villa Nova defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villa Nova scores more
41%
level
26%
CAP scores more
33%

Villa Nova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villa Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Nova vs CAP

Villa Nova beat CAP 2-0 in Mineiro - 1 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes in Nova Lima, Minas Gerais.