Villa Nova 3–0 Aymorés: Result & Stats

Villa Nova

FT

3 – 0

Aymorés

8/7/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Villa Nova61%

×Draw23%

Aymorés16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa NovaExpected goals in this matchAymorés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.76

Villa Nova

1.75

Aymorés

0.76

Villa Nova creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

2.13

creates per match

0.71

0.80

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Villa Nova

2.13

Aymorés

0.71

allows per match

Villa Nova

0.80

Aymorés

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Nova+0.00on par

Aymorés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Nova ↓

Aymorés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villa Nova or draw

84%

Villa Nova or Aymorés

77%

Draw or Aymorés

39%

Winning margin

Villa Nova wins by 2+

35%

Aymorés wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Villa Nova 1+ goals

83%

Villa Nova 2+ goals

52%

Villa Nova 3+ goals

25%

Aymorés 1+ goals

53%

Aymorés 2+ goals

18%

Aymorés 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Villa Nova (draw refunded)

79%

Aymorés (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Nova at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Aymorés away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Nova attack 2.13 + Aymorés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aymorés attack 0.71 + Villa Nova defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Villa Nova scores more

61%

level

23%

Aymorés scores more

16%

Villa Nova at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Villa Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff