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Villa Mitre vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
2/25/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Villa Mitre61%
×Draw24%
Union Sunchales14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.63
Union Sunchales
0.64

Villa Mitre creates 155% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 85 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
86%
Villa Mitre or Union Sunchales
76%
Draw or Union Sunchales
39%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
34%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
80%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
48%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
22%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
47%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
14%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
81%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
61%
level
24%
Union Sunchales scores more
14%

Villa Mitre at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Union Sunchales

Villa Mitre beat Union Sunchales 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).