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Villa Mitre vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
8/29/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 20Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Villa Mitre60%
×Draw24%
Sportivo Peñarol15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.64
Sportivo Peñarol
0.68

Villa Mitre creates 141% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 62 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
85%
Villa Mitre or Sportivo Peñarol
76%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
40%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
33%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
81%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
49%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
23%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
49%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
15%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
80%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
60%
level
24%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
15%

Villa Mitre at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Mitre 2 – 2 Sportivo Peñarol

Villa Mitre and Sportivo Peñarol drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.