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Villa Mitre vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
3/7/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 22Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Villa Mitre60%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Desamparados14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.48
Sportivo Desamparados
0.57

Villa Mitre creates 160% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 59 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
86%
Villa Mitre or Sportivo Desamparados
74%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
40%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
31%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
43%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
11%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
81%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
60%
level
26%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
14%

Villa Mitre at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Mitre 2 – 0 Sportivo Desamparados

Villa Mitre beat Sportivo Desamparados 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).