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Villa Mitre vs Santamarina — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santamarina
Santamarina
3/23/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 1 - 1Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Villa Mitre59%
×Draw26%
Santamarina15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.48
Santamarina
0.60

Villa Mitre creates 147% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 54 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Santamarina
0.72

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Santamarina
1.35

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Santamarina+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Santamarina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
85%
Villa Mitre or Santamarina
74%
Draw or Santamarina
41%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
31%
Santamarina wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
19%
Santamarina 1+ goals
45%
Santamarina 2+ goals
12%
Santamarina 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
80%
Santamarina (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Santamarina away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Santamarina defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santamarina attack 0.72 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
59%
level
26%
Santamarina scores more
15%

Villa Mitre at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Santamarina

Villa Mitre beat Santamarina 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.