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Santamarina vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Santamarina
Santamarina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
11/17/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 5th RoundEstadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Santamarina44%
×Draw32%
Villa Mitre23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santamarina
1.07
Villa Mitre
0.69

Santamarina creates 55% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 115 away

creates per match

Santamarina
1.24
Villa Mitre
0.80

allows per match

Santamarina
0.58
Villa Mitre
0.90

finishing

Santamarina+0.00on par
Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santamarina ↓

Villa Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Santamarina or draw
77%
Santamarina or Villa Mitre
68%
Draw or Villa Mitre
56%

Winning margin

Santamarina wins by 2+
18%
Villa Mitre wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santamarina 1+ goals
66%
Santamarina 2+ goals
29%
Santamarina 3+ goals
9%
Villa Mitre 1+ goals
50%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
15%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Santamarina (draw refunded)
65%
Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santamarina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 55 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santamarina attack 1.24 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Santamarina defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santamarina scores more
44%
level
32%
Villa Mitre scores more
23%

Santamarina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santamarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santamarina vs Villa Mitre

Santamarina and Villa Mitre drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil in Tandil, Provincia de Buenos Aires.