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Villa Mitre vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
CANC
00:00
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
4/26/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 29Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Villa Mitre56%
×Draw27%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.46
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.66

Villa Mitre creates 121% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 83 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.82

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.31

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
83%
Villa Mitre or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
73%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
44%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
29%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
18%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
48%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
14%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
77%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
56%
level
27%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
17%

Villa Mitre at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villa Mitre face Ferro Carril Oeste LP (Torneo Federal A)

Torneo Federal A returns with Villa Mitre hosting Ferro Carril Oeste LP. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Villa Mitre host Ferro Carril Oeste LP at Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.