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Villa Mitre vs Estudiantes S.l. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
5/11/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 8Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Villa Mitre58%
×Draw27%
Estudiantes S.l.15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.46
Estudiantes S.l.
0.60

Villa Mitre creates 143% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 103 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Estudiantes S.l.
0.72

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Estudiantes S.l.
1.30

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
85%
Villa Mitre or Estudiantes S.l.
73%
Draw or Estudiantes S.l.
42%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
30%
Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
18%
Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
45%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
12%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
79%
Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
58%
level
27%
Estudiantes S.l. scores more
15%

Villa Mitre at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Villa Mitre 2–0 Estudiantes S.l.

Villa Mitre beat Estudiantes S.l. 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.