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Villa Mitre vs Deportivo Roca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
9/23/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 4Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villa Mitre66%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Roca8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.47
Deportivo Roca
0.33

Villa Mitre creates 345% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Deportivo Roca
0.17

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Deportivo Roca
1.33

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
92%
Villa Mitre or Deportivo Roca
74%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
34%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
36%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
77%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
43%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
28%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
4%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
89%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Deportivo Roca attack 0.17 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
66%
level
26%
Deportivo Roca scores more
8%

Villa Mitre at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Deportivo Roca

Villa Mitre beat Deportivo Roca 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).