Villa Mitre 2–1 Ciudad de Bolívar: Result & Stats

Villa Mitre

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ciudad de Bolívar

G. Jara 66'

F. Dauwalder 42'

I. Lucero 38'

7/28/2024

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Round - 2Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Villa Mitre49%

×Draw32%

Ciudad de Bolívar19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa MitreExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Bolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.56

Villa Mitre

1.11

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.56

Villa Mitre creates 98% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

1.29

creates per match

0.70

0.43

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Villa Mitre

1.29

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.70

allows per match

Villa Mitre

0.43

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw

81%

Villa Mitre or Ciudad de Bolívar

68%

Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar

51%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+

21%

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals

67%

Villa Mitre 2+ goals

30%

Villa Mitre 3+ goals

10%

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

43%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)

73%

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.29 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.70 + Villa Mitre defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villa Mitre scores more

49%

level

32%

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

19%

Villa Mitre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Troncoso← B. Calabrese

38'

I. Lucero

42'

F. Dauwalder

57'

G. Jara← J. Vivani

63'

M. Pucheta← G. Urquijo

63'

J. Sequeyra← S. Bustos

66'

66'

75'

75'

75'

M. Brambillo← R. Formigo

Villa

Ciudad

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Mungo

57'▲G. Jara←▼J. Vivani

75'▲E. Ávila←▼S. Jeldres

75'▲E. Cérica←▼M. López

Villa Mitre substitutes

JaraÁvilaCérica

Manager: H. Ortiz

10'▲A. Troncoso←▼B. Calabrese

63'▲M. Pucheta←▼G. Urquijo

63'▲J. Sequeyra←▼S. Bustos

75'▲M. Brambillo←▼R. Formigo

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

TroncosoPuchetaSequeyraBrambillo