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Villa Mitre vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
11/4/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Villa Mitre59%
×Draw25%
Boca Unidos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.58
Boca Unidos
0.69

Villa Mitre creates 129% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.61
Boca Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.49
Boca Unidos
1.54

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
84%
Villa Mitre or Boca Unidos
75%
Draw or Boca Unidos
41%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
32%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
79%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
47%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
21%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
50%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
15%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
78%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.49 · 119 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.61 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + Villa Mitre defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
59%
level
25%
Boca Unidos scores more
16%

Villa Mitre at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Mitre vs Boca Unidos

Villa Mitre beat Boca Unidos 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.