Villa Espanola 1–3 Plaza Colonia: Result & Stats

Villa Espanola

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Plaza Colonia

D. Olivera 49'

Diogo 53', 10'

Á. Fernández 6'

5/29/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Villa Espanola32%

×Draw26%

Plaza Colonia42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchPlaza Colonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.40

Villa Espanola

1.20

Plaza Colonia

1.40

Plaza Colonia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 58 away

1.18

creates per match

0.98

1.82

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.18

Plaza Colonia

0.98

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.82

Plaza Colonia

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Plaza Colonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

58%

Villa Espanola or Plaza Colonia

74%

Draw or Plaza Colonia

68%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

13%

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

70%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

34%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

12%

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

75%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

41%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

44%

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Plaza Colonia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.18 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Plaza Colonia attack 0.98 + Villa Espanola defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

32%

level

26%

Plaza Colonia scores more

42%

Plaza Colonia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

10'

16'

23'

42'

49'

53'

57'

66'

R. Quintana← N. Dibble

66'

N. Albarracín← E. Umeres

67'

G. Aprile← I. Allende

74'

C. Rodríguez← Á. Fernández

74'

L. Suhr← Diogo

77'

P. Silva← J. Ríos

85'

I. Enríquez← J. Mascia

87'

S. Ramírez← C. Tizón

Villa

Plaza

77

4

16

33

15

⚽

▼

Fernández

3

Calleros

22

Leonai

9

▼

Mascia

11

▼

Dibble

26

▼

Umeres

18

⚽2

▼

23

33

26

34

13

25

▼

Ríos

14

▼

Allende

11

▼

Tizón

15

Albín

8

López

19

⚽

Olivera

Manager: B. Piano

67'▲G. Aprile←▼I. Allende

77'▲P. Silva←▼J. Ríos

87'▲S. Ramírez←▼C. Tizón

Villa Espanola substitutes

31Aprile9Silva32Ramírez4Pérez6Flores7Ghan10Silva28Amorín16Mozzo24Albín

Manager: E. Espinel

66'▲R. Quintana←▼N. Dibble

66'▲N. Albarracín←▼E. Umeres

74'▲C. Rodríguez←▼Á. Fernández

74'▲L. Suhr←▼Diogo

85'▲I. Enríquez←▼J. Mascia

Plaza Colonia substitutes

21Quintana25Albarracín7Rodríguez10Suhr28Enríquez6Jourdan12Guirin13Sarlabós20Redín23Homenchenko

Primera División - Apertura: Villa Espanola 1–3 Plaza Colonia

Plaza Colonia beat Villa Espanola 3-1 in Primera División - Apertura on May 29, 2021.

Goals: Á. Fernández (6'), Diogo (10', 53'), D. Olivera (49').

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.

Villa Espanola vs Plaza Colonia — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División - Apertura: Villa Espanola 1–3 Plaza Colonia