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Villa Espanola vs Cerro Largo — Segunda División 2026

Villa Espanola
Villa Espanola
FT
1 – 2
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
8/25/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Obdulio Varela (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Villa Espanola36%
×Draw29%
Cerro Largo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Espanola
1.13
Cerro Largo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

creates per match

Villa Espanola
1.45
Cerro Largo
0.87

allows per match

Villa Espanola
1.38
Cerro Largo
0.80

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw
64%
Villa Espanola or Cerro Largo
71%
Draw or Cerro Largo
64%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+
15%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals
68%
Villa Espanola 2+ goals
31%
Villa Espanola 3+ goals
11%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
68%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
31%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)
50%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.45 + Cerro Largo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cerro Largo attack 0.87 + Villa Espanola defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villa Espanola scores more
36%
level
29%
Cerro Largo scores more
36%

Villa Espanola at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo beat Villa Espanola 2-1 in Segunda División on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela (Montevideo).