Villa Espanola 1–1 Cerrito: Result & Stats

Villa Espanola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cerrito

M. Riquero 55'

M. Silvera 90+1'

8/2/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Villa Espanola44%

×Draw26%

Cerrito31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchCerrito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.20

Villa Espanola

1.48

Cerrito

1.20

Villa Espanola creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

0.58

1.82

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.18

Cerrito

0.58

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.82

Cerrito

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Cerrito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

69%

Villa Espanola or Cerrito

74%

Draw or Cerrito

56%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

21%

Cerrito wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

77%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

43%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

19%

Cerrito 1+ goals

70%

Cerrito 2+ goals

34%

Cerrito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

59%

Cerrito (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Cerrito away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.18 + Cerrito defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cerrito attack 0.58 + Villa Espanola defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

44%

level

26%

Cerrito scores more

31%

Villa Espanola at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villa Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

F. Puente

32'

J. Ortiz

33'

38'

44'

46'

55'

56'

56'

J. González← F. Puente

61'

J. D. Rio N.

62'

R.

64'

S. López← P. Silva

64'

O. Falconis← J. Ortíz

71'

M. Riquero

78'

D. Olivera← F. Tancredi

78'

G. Aprile← J. Ríos

82'

M. Amondarain

84'

G. Da Luz← M. Ferreira

88'

90+3'

90+3'

90+1'

Villa

Cerrito

25

15

16

22

3

▼

5

28

27

14

▼

Ortíz

11

⚽

Silvera

44

▼

1

3

24

22

13

⚽

Riquero

25

▼

Ríos

7

▼

Ghan

20

▼

Puente

17

Albín

9

▼

Silva

23

▼

Tancredi

Manager: J. Mozzo

56'▲C. Tizón←▼E. Ghan

56'▲J. González←▼F. Puente

64'▲S. López←▼P. Silva

78'▲D. Olivera←▼F. Tancredi

78'▲G. Aprile←▼J. Ríos

Villa Espanola substitutes

33Tizón26González8López19Olivera31Aprile34Pérez6Flores21Espinosa5Machado10Silva

Manager: R. Marcenaro

46'▲F. Scarone←▼S. Núñez

64'▲O. Falconis←▼J. Ortíz

84'▲G. Da Luz←▼M. Ferreira

Cerrito substitutes

17Scarone18Falconis21Luz1Larrea12Velázquez20Pimienta23Ribeiro31Cruz8López13Goyeni

Primera División - Apertura: Villa Espanola 1–1 Cerrito

Villa Espanola and Cerrito drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on August 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Riquero (55'), M. Silvera (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.

Villa Espanola vs Cerrito — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División - Apertura: Villa Espanola 1–1 Cerrito