Villa Espanola 2–1 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Villa Espanola

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Albion FC

E. Dudok 23'

J. Varela 11'

F. Laurino 80' (pen)

6/2/2018

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Obdulio Varela (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Villa Espanola38%

×Draw27%

Albion FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.24

Villa Espanola

1.28

Albion FC

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 94 away

1.45

creates per match

1.10

1.38

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.45

Albion FC

1.10

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.38

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

64%

Villa Espanola or Albion FC

73%

Draw or Albion FC

62%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

17%

Albion FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

72%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

37%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

14%

Albion FC 1+ goals

71%

Albion FC 2+ goals

35%

Albion FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

51%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.11 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.45 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Albion FC attack 1.10 + Villa Espanola defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

38%

level

27%

Albion FC scores more

36%

Villa Espanola at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villa Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Varela

23'

E. Dudok

52'

A. Graterol← J. Toledo

69'

M. Appelt← B. Barreto

72'

J. Godino← F. Larrosa

78'

M. Monroy← M. Ohaco

80'

F. LaurinoPenalty

84'

P. Castro← S. Fernández

89'

Á. Apólito← P. Dzeruvs

Villa

Albion

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Irigoyen

72'▲J. Godino←▼F. Larrosa

84'▲P. Castro←▼S. Fernández

89'▲Á. Apólito←▼P. Dzeruvs

Villa Espanola substitutes

GodinoCastroApólitoJaraAllendeGonzálezMartínez

Manager: G. Corral

52'▲A. Graterol←▼J. Toledo

69'▲M. Appelt←▼B. Barreto

78'▲M. Monroy←▼M. Ohaco

Albion FC substitutes

GraterolAppeltMonroyGarcíaFernándezRuizOrtega

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Albion FC

Villa Espanola beat Albion FC 2-1 in Segunda División on June 2, 2018.

Goals: J. Varela (11'), E. Dudok (23'), F. Laurino (80' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela (Montevideo).

Villa Espanola vs Albion FC — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Albion FC